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HOW TO RESIST TRUMP

VOLUNTEER NOW FOR THESE 3 CANDIDATES;

HELP DEMOCRATS TAKE BACK U.S. HOUSE THIS YEAR


Democrats in special elections for U.S. House seats: Gay Valimont for FL-CD1; Josh Weil for FL-CD6; Blake Gendebien for NY-CD21.


By PAUL BLYTHE

Donald Trump’s assault on democracy has moved faster and been far worse than most of us expected.

And it has Democrats and Constitution-lovers nationwide asking our party leaders and ourselves: What can we do to stop him, or even slow him down?

Call our senators and representatives? File lawsuits and call state attorney generals to sue? Donate to the ACLU, DCCC and DSCC? Take to the streets to demonstrate en masse?

All valid and important methods of protest.

But consider this. Maybe the most impactful thing you can do to resist Trump, at least for the next six weeks, is to bet on a couple of long shots.


SPECIAL ELECTIONS APRIL 1 IN FLORIDA

Dedicate your money and time to these two Democratic candidates seeking these U.S. House seats in special elections set for April 1 in Florida:

  • Gay Valimont, a gun violence prevention activist and former athletic trainer, to replace former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz in Florida Congressional District 1 in the Panhandle.

  • Joshua Weil, a public school teacher and single father of two sons, to replace former U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz in Florida Congressional District 6 in northeast Florida between St. Augustine and South Daytona Beach.


Then do the same for Blake Gendebien, the upstate New York dairy farmer nominated by Democratic Party chairmen in his state to run for New York Congressional District 21 once Republican U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik finally resigns her House seat and a date is set for a New York special election.

The three Republican seats are opening up because Trump nominated Stefanik as his U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Waltz as his national security advisor and Gaetz as his attorney general. But after Gaetz resigned his House set, he withdrew his name from consideration for attorney general when it became clear he didn’t have the Senate votes he needed, largely because of the release of a House ethics committee report detailing sexual misconduct and other allegations against him.


DEMS NEED 3 SEATS TO TAKE HOUSE

If Democrats can win all three of the seats, they would regain control of the House in 2025, giving them some actual leverage this year in blocking Trump’s autocratic maneuvers.

The situation illustrates how narrow the Republicans’ November House wins were and how tenuous their control of the chamber continues to be.

After the November ballots for all the House races were finally tallied, the Republicans held 220 seats to the Democrats’ 215. When Gaetz and Waltz departed, the Republicans’ seats dropped to 218, giving them a margin of only three votes in the House, at least temporarily.

 That’s probably why the U.S. Senate is delaying its confirmation vote for Stefanik. House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., does not want to lose Stefanik’s vote in the House until after the Florida elections, because he believes Republicans will regain the seats in the special elections.

But if Democrats Valimont and Weil can win the two Florida seats, that would drop Republicans to only a one-vote margin – 218-217 seats – for as long as Stefanik holds on to her seat. And once the Senate approves her and she vacates her seat to become ambassador, the U.S. House – under this scenario of Valimont and Weil winning -- would be deadlocked at 217 Republicans vs. 217 Democrats with 1 vacancy.

And that would not be a bad thing for Democrats. According to House rules, in the case of a tie vote, the question being brought before the chamber "shall be lost." The rules then allow the leadership, which would still be Republican, to bring the legislation up again for another vote later. But as long as all Democratic representatives stick together in opposing Republican bills, they could block Trump’s legislation for as long as the deadlock lasted.

That makes this next move by New York Democrats, who control the state’s legislative assembly, all the more interesting. Under current New York law, the governor would have 10 days after Stefanik vacates the seat to schedule a special election within the next 70 to 80 days.


NY ELECTION DATE NOT YET SET

But Democrats in the New York Assembly introduced a bill that would allow Gov. Kathy Hochul, also a Democrat, to delay the special election until New York’s Nov. 4 general election, which would leave Stefanik’s seat open for essentially the rest of the year.

Republicans in the Assembly and voters in District 21 loudly opposed the bill, and the bill was abandoned hours before it was scheduled for debate and a vote, but the sponsor has said it’s not dead, just “on hold for now.”

The drawback of betting your political contributions on these three elections to counteract Trump, political pundits say, is that Democratic victory is possible but not probable.

Then again, faint heart never won fair lady – or tough election.

Yes, the three districts are ruby red. Registered Republican voters outnumber Democratic ones 55%-21% in FL-CD1, 49%-26% in FL-CD6 and 42%-26% in NY-CD21, according to Florida and New York’s Divisions of Elections websites.

But Democrats have historically shined against Trump’s candidates in special elections during the past eight years.



Presidents Day protesters in Washington, D.C.
Presidents Day protesters against Trump in Washington, D.C.


There also is good reason to believe that increasing fear and outrage about Trump’s blatantly unconstitutional blitzkrieg to dismantle the federal workforce will motivate more than just Democrats to get out and again vote against his candidates – if we can just make them aware of the importance of these elections. Just look at the turnout for the “No kings on Presidents Day” protests in every state on Presidents Day.

And the time frame for dedicating your time and money to these campaigns is short. The Florida elections are on April 1! If you sign up on ActBlue.com to give monthly, as I have, that will be just two contributions.  

You’ll have your answer on whether it was worth it in just 42 days. If these Democrats lose, move on to other acts of resistance. Actually, win or lose, move on to other ways to resist!


CONSIDER CONTRIBUTION 'BIG REWARD' INVESTMENT

But think of these contributions as you would an investment. Compare the potential risk to the potential reward. To me, this seems a “small risk, big reward” investment, even if just one candidate wins.

Come on, Democrats!

You can’t vote in these races unless you live in these districts, but you can phonebank from your home for those candidates’ campaigns, send texts, write postcards and contribute money, no matter where your home is. It's not hard. I've done phone-banking for Valimont and Weil. See the lists below for links to join their phone-banking Zoom sessions and the campaigns will teach you everything you need to know.

And if we get Democrats all over Palm Beach County, all over Florida, all over the nation to pitch in, we can steamroll the Republican opposition.

So, check out the links below for ways to hook up with these campaigns, and join them.

Then share this information with your friends and relatives and urge them to get involved.

For sure, as part of the Valimont, Weis and Gendebien campaigns, we’re still going to have to work hard to get out not only the Democratic vote but the no-party and other-party votes by making the case to them that Trump is a serious threat not only to our democracy but to our national security and to our democratic allies.


REMIND VOTERS OF THREATS TO DEMOCRACY

It shouldn't be hard, as there is no limit to the evidence you can throw at them. Just remind them of the crazy stuff his administration has done in the past week:

  • Endangering free elections by freezing all election security work by the federal Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and “reviewing” everything it has done to help state and local officials secure their elections for the past eight years.

  • Endangering national security by firing as many as 350 Energy Department employees without first taking the time to realize the jobs of those employees were assembling, managing, overseeing the nation’s nuclear weapons arsenal.

  • Alienating our allied democracies in Europe with Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth’s comments to NATO sabotaging Ukraine’s bargaining power with Russia in upcoming negotiations, Vice President JD Vance’s insulting and hypocritical lecture to NATO, and Trump’s phone call to Putin about the future of Ukraine. As a friend of mine posted on Threads recently, “If Trump were president in 1944, he’d be negotiating how much of England Hitler gets to keep."


The democracies of NATO know from historical experience that when anti-democratic forces go unchecked for too long, they can destroy their democracies from within. Let’s beat Trump's candidates at the ballot box while we still can.


Adapted from a talk given Feb. 13 to the North County Democratic Club of Palm Beach County. This version corrects an error made during the talk regarding how the U.S. House breaks tie votes.

 

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HOW TO GET INVOLVED IN CAMPAIGNS

You can't vote in one of these races unless you live in one of the districts, but there is nothing to stop you from contributing your time and money to the campaigns. And all three would love your help contacting voters about their candidates and the dates of their elections. Here are the links you'll need:

 

GAY VALIMONT FOR FLORIDA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 1

Campaign website: gayforcongress.com

Mobilize events for Gay: mobilize.us/gayforcongress/ (Besides canvassing in the district, this is virtual phone banking)

Who vacated FL-CD1: Matt Gaetz, super MAGA-U.S. Representative universally despised by anyone not a MAGA (Republicans as well as Democrats).

How Gay was chosen for April 1 special election: Gay, a gun-safety activist was only Democrat to qualify for special election, so primary not needed. Previously lost to Gaetz in Nov. election.

GOP opponent in April 1 election: Florida CFO Jimmy Patronis, who is Trump-endorsed and doesn’t live in District 1

 

JOSH WEIL FOR FLORIDA CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 6

Campaign website: joshweil.us

Mobilize events for Josh: mobilize.us/joshweilforcongressionaldistrict6 (Besides canvassing in district, this includes virtual phone banking and writing postcards)

Twitter: @JoshWeilFL6

Who vacated FL-CD6: Michael Waltz, U.S. representative until Trump appointed him as National Security Advisor.

How Josh was chosen for April 1 special election: Josh, a public school teacher and single father of two sos, won 61% of vote to defeat George Selmont, an Elkton businessman, in Jan. 28 Democratic primary.

GOP opponent in April 1 election: Randy Fine, Trump-endorsed state senator who doesn’t live in District 6.

 

BLAKE GENDEBIEN FOR NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT 21

Mobilize events for Blake: Campaign is not set up on Mobilize yet, but you can sign up to volunteer for the campaign here, including helping with phone banking, text banking and postcards: Volunteer Sign Up Form!

Twitter: @BlakeGendebien

Who vacated NY-CD21: U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik is expected to resign her seat when the U.S. Senate confirms her appointment as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. It remains unclear when a special election will be scheduled to replace her.

How was Blake chosen for the NY-CD21 special election: The 15 county Democratic chairs in the district unanimously chose Gendebian, a dairy farmer, to run in the election.

GOP opponent in special election: Not yet decided. According to Wikipedia.org, there are 9 declared Republican candidates and several potential others.

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